Part 3 - Google Voice: The Impact

There are a number of ways that I foresee Google Voice having a significant impact.

Will mobile telcos become a “dumb pipe”? One of the controlling assets mobile telcos have over its user base is your personal mobile number. Users are typically restricted to choosing a new mobile phone and their service provider once every 18 months. Why? Because mobile telcos (not you) own your personal mobile number throughout the contract – users only own their personal number at the end of their contract – when you can choose to “port” your number to another provider.

Splitting these services – being the provision of your personal mobile number (and the services associated with it) and the physical mobile service, Google will profoundly change the structure of this market.

Breaking the link between your personal mobile number and the service provider will fragment the mobile telcos “value chain” where they provide control your mobile number, mobile phone, contract and services. Hence:

1. If mobile telcos don’t adapt, they will become a “dumb pipe” similar to broadband services, where a key point of differentiation becomes price. Providers will be interchangeable since Google will hold your personal number.

2. Mobile telcos will be forced to implement new innovative services such as Hullomail and SpinVox(!) to compete with Google Voice. This may lead to these service providers being bought to also create differentiation between mobile telcos.

3. “Disposal” pay as you go and shorter contracts will be more popular as it will be easy to start, stop and swap mobile telcos.

4. Buying mobiles without contracts will become more common as you switch between providers on short term contracts – ebay sales of second hand phones increase over time.

5. You will not need to concern yourself with lost mobiles as you can just buy a new phone and contract with another provider.

If Google were to become a virtual mobile phone provider in the UK you would have the right to port your current mobile number to Google. This loss of control should worry mobile telcos – virtual network providers such as Virgin were a way to broaden the use of networks, Google will change the landscape profoundly.

Part 2 - Google Voice: How was it for you?

Google Voice is just great but there are a few drawbacks. More importantly there will some profound long term implications for incumbent mobile telcos (see Part 3).

The general configuration UI is very similar to that of Gmail (Inbox, Starred, History, Spam etc) with “labels” immediately below (Voicemail, SMS, Recorded, Placed etc) – maybe one day Google will be brave enough to integrate both.

Voicemails are transcribed with varying success – I assume they are using the same technology as their 411 and voice search service. This makes both voicemails and SMSs searchable using the standard Google search box. Contacts are integrated with your Gmail/Google Contacts. Local (US) calls and SMSs are free – all other calls can be paid for using Google Checkout.

Calls can be made by dialling your Google Voice number and following the series of instructions. Alternatively, you can place your call from the web app (desktop or mobile). This prompts you for a name/number and the “Phone to Ring” – which is one of your registered phones. It rings you phone initially, tells you the cost of the call and then connects you to the number requested.

This can be initiated by the desktop or through the mobile browser. (I was unable to use the Google Voice client for the G1). UK landline calls are 2 cents a minute, whilst UK mobile calls are 20 cents per minute (cheaper than my UK mobile provider). You can send an SMS message in a similar manner.

Calls received are diverted to the phone of your choice – in my instance, this is to my newly acquired $25 prepaid phone. If a call is missed it diverts to voicemail which is then transcribed and added to the Google Voice inbox. In addition, it sends the transcribed message as an SMS to your mobile.

Over the week I was in the US it was invaluable allowing me to make calls to the UK for less than my mobile telco in the UK.The only downside I see is that it is not integrated with Gmail and so voicemails are kept within the Google Voice system and are not downloadable as an MP3 – unlike Hullomail. I do forsee the ability to search the transcribed messages as being invaluable – but I cannot edit mistakes made by Google in this process.