Part 3 - Google Voice: The Impact

There are a number of ways that I foresee Google Voice having a significant impact.

Will mobile telcos become a “dumb pipe”? One of the controlling assets mobile telcos have over its user base is your personal mobile number. Users are typically restricted to choosing a new mobile phone and their service provider once every 18 months. Why? Because mobile telcos (not you) own your personal mobile number throughout the contract – users only own their personal number at the end of their contract – when you can choose to “port” your number to another provider.

Splitting these services – being the provision of your personal mobile number (and the services associated with it) and the physical mobile service, Google will profoundly change the structure of this market.

Breaking the link between your personal mobile number and the service provider will fragment the mobile telcos “value chain” where they provide control your mobile number, mobile phone, contract and services. Hence:

1. If mobile telcos don’t adapt, they will become a “dumb pipe” similar to broadband services, where a key point of differentiation becomes price. Providers will be interchangeable since Google will hold your personal number.

2. Mobile telcos will be forced to implement new innovative services such as Hullomail and SpinVox(!) to compete with Google Voice. This may lead to these service providers being bought to also create differentiation between mobile telcos.

3. “Disposal” pay as you go and shorter contracts will be more popular as it will be easy to start, stop and swap mobile telcos.

4. Buying mobiles without contracts will become more common as you switch between providers on short term contracts – ebay sales of second hand phones increase over time.

5. You will not need to concern yourself with lost mobiles as you can just buy a new phone and contract with another provider.

If Google were to become a virtual mobile phone provider in the UK you would have the right to port your current mobile number to Google. This loss of control should worry mobile telcos – virtual network providers such as Virgin were a way to broaden the use of networks, Google will change the landscape profoundly.